It’s unclear if anyone in the navy or the current government wants 12 subs, and currently there aren’t crews for them. Having said that, the figure of 12 submarines was plucked from the 2009 Defence White Paper and reiterated in the 2013 White Paper. Neither estimate includes the cost of supporting the subs throughout their lifespan, which will double or triple the price. The TKMS estimate is a “sailaway” price, however – a dollars-per-tonne base amount that doesn’t include design or defence project-management costs. Whether they are mutually exclusive depends, I suppose, on the government’s definition of “affordable”.ĪSPI estimates 12 future submarines will likely cost around $36 billion the chair of the German naval vessel and submarine manufacturer ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), a major sponsor of the conference, gave a figure of $20 billion. He acknowledged that these were difficult goals. Minister Johnston stressed that our future fleet would have to be regionally dominant, superior and also affordable. Designers of conventional subs, such as the Swedes and Germans, have experience with shorter ranges: designing a sub for the Baltic Sea is like designing a sub to do laps around the Gulf of Carpentaria. Nor, as the then chief of navy, Vice Admiral Ray Griggs, pointed out in his speech, has Australia even begun to acquire the infrastructure or invest in the training needed to support nuclear-powered submarines.Īs a senior defence consultant told me, Australia has the only navy in the world that flogs its diesel submarines thousands of kilometres across the ocean – and then goes on patrol. What we want, the minister admitted, is a conventional submarine (one powered by diesel-electric motors), with the power, speed and range of a nuclear submarine. The defence minister, David Johnston, opened the conference and stated clearly the difficulty Australia faces in considering its future submarine options. It was “the most knowledgeable gathering ever held in Australia to do with submarines”, said ASPI’s executive director, Peter Jennings, and there was not an empty seat to be found in the Federation Ballroom of the Canberra Hyatt. To discuss the project, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) hosted a conference, The Submarine Choice, over two days in April. It will be one of the biggest and most expensive infrastructure projects in Australian history, as ambitious as the Snowy Mountain Hydro-electric Scheme or the National Broadband Network. The new vessels will need to enter service by the early-to-mid 2030s in order to replace the ageing Collins Class submarines. If Australians felt blindsided in April when the federal government announced its purchase of an additional 58 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets for $12 billion, they’ll want to sit down with a strong cup of tea to contemplate the cost of our future submarine fleet. A decision on our underwater fleet cannot be put off much longer
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